اثر رشد اقتصادی بر نرخ باروری کل در ایران (1392-1363)

نوع مقاله : اصیل پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد MBA، دانشکده مدیریت و فن آوری، دانشگاه علوم و فنون مازندران، بابل، ایران.

2 دانشجوی دکترای روانشناسی، دانشکده علوم تربیتی و روانشناسی، دانشگاه الزهراء، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

مقدمه: باروری از جمله مباحث پیچیده‌ای است که عوامل مختلف اقتصادی، فرهنگی و سیاسی بر آن تأثیرگذار است. از یک سو تصمیمات خانواده برای فرزندپروری به شدت وابسته به شرایط اقتصادی و از سوی دیگر رشد و ورود فرزندان به بازار کار بر اقتصاد تأثیرگذار است. کشوری مانند ایران با سهم زیادی از جمعیت جوان به طور طبیعی نرخ بالاتری از زاد و ولد و نرخ پایین‌تری از مرگ و میر را تجربه می‌کند. بنابراین توجه به باروری و موضوعات مرتبط با آن در ایران از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار است، لذا مطالعه حاضر با هدف بررسی اثر رشد اقتصادی بر نرخ باروری کل در ایران انجام شد.
روش‌کار: داده‌های سری زمانی مربوط به نرخ رشد اقتصادی و نرخ باروری کل در ایران از داده‌های بانک جهانی طی سال‌های 1392-1363 استخراج و سپس الگوی پیشنهادی با استفاده از آزمون هم‌جمعی جوهانسن و الگوی تصحیح خطای برداری برآورد گردید.
یافته‌ها: برآورد الگوی پیشنهادی به کار گرفته شده نشان داد که طی این سال‌ها، 1% افزایش در نرخ رشد اقتصادی در ایران باعث 01/0% کاهش در نرخ باروری کل در یک دوره بعد و 01/0% کاهش در نرخ باروری کل در دو دوره بعد شده است.
نتیجه‌گیری: طی دوره مشاهده، رشد اقتصادی در ایران اثر منفی و معناداری بر نرخ باروری کل داشته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Effect of Economic Growth on Total Fertility Rate in Iran (1984-2013)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mahyar Hami 1
  • Maryam Taghavi Jelodar 2
1 M.Sc in Master of Business Administration, School of Management and Technology, Mazandaran University of Science & Technology, Babol, Iran.
2 Ph.D Student in Psychology, School of Education and Psychology, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Introduction: Fertility is as complex topics which is influenced by various economic, cultural, and political factors. Also, family's decisions for childbearing is highly dependent on economic conditions and on the other hand, children's growth and entering to the market affect economy. A country like Iran with a large share of young population naturally experiences higher rates of fertility and lower rates of mortality. Therefore, it is important to pay attention to fertility and its related issues in Iran. So, this study was performed with aim to evaluate the effect of economic growth on total fertility rate in Iran.
Methods: Time series data related to economic growth and fertility rate in Iran was extracted from World Bank Data during 1984 to 2013. Then we applied Johansen Co-integration Test and Vector Error Correction Model to estimate the proposed model.
Results: Estimation of the proposed model showed that during these years, 1% increase in economic growth rate has led to approximately 0.01% decrease in total fertility rate in the next period and 0.01% decrease in total fertility rate in the next two period.
Conclusion: The economic growth has a negatively significant impact on total fertility rate in Iran during the observation period.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic Growth
  • Iran
  • Total Fertility Rate
  • Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

مراجع

  1. Hartmann AM. Fertility and economic growth: how does the fertility rate influence economic growth in developing countries. [Dissertaion Thesis]. Denmark: Aarhus School of Business, University of Aarhus; 2010. P. 1-60.
  2. Nourani S, Jonaidy E, Shakeri MT, Mokhber N. Comparison of quality of life in fertile and infertile women referred to the public clinics in Mashhad. Iran J Obstet Gynecol Infertil 2012; 15(7):24-31. (Persain).
  3. Weil D. Economic growth. 1st ed. Boston: Addison-Wesley; 2005.
  4. Lee R, Mason A. Fertility, human capital, and economic growth over the demographic transition. Eur J Popul 2010; 26(2):159-82.
  5. Barro RJ, Becker GS. Fertility choice in a model of economic growth. Econometrica 1989; 57(2):481-501.
  6. Ziaee BM, Kalantari S, Alizadeh MM. The relationship between fertility rate and socio-economic development. Soci Welfare 2006; 5(21):123-40. (Persian).
  7. World development indicators. The World Bank. Available at: URL:  http://data.worldbank.org/products/wdi; 2016.
  8. Shiri T, Bidarian S. Economic and population factors affecting the reproductive of 49-15 year-old women working in education district 22 of Tehran. J Soci Sci 2009; 3(3):93-107. (Persian).
  9. Rabiee M, Heydari S, Shariat Bahadori M, Kani S. The Effect of health indicators on economic growth: the case of developed and developing countries. Econ J 2013; 13(7-8):73-88. (Persian).
  10. Acemoglu D, Johnson S. Disease and development: the effect of life expectancy on economic growth. J Natl Bureau Econ Res 2006; 115(6):925-85.
  11. Bloom D, Canning D, Fink G, Finlay JE. Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend. J Econ Growth 2009; 14(2):79-101.
  12. Ashraf QH, Weil DN, Wilde J. The effect of fertility reduction on economic growth. Popul Dev Rev 2013; 39(1):97-130.
  13. Jemna DV. Causality relationship between economic development and fertility in Romania on regional level. Proced Econ Fin 2015; 20:334-41.
  14. Micevska MB. Economic disruption, malthusian fertility, and economic growth. Washington, D.C: The Brookings; 2001.
  15. Malthus TR. Essay on the principle of population as it affects the future improvement of society. London: Cambridge University Press; 1798.
  16. Solow RM. A contribution to the theory of economic growth. Q J Econ 1956; 70(1):65-95.
  17. Becker GS, Barro R. A reformulation of the economic theory of fertility. Q J Econ 1988; 103(1):1-25.
  18. Becker GS, Murphy KM, Tamura R. Human capital, fertility, and economic growth. J Political Econ 1990; 98(5):12-37.
  19. Skirbekk V. Why not start younger? Implications of the timing and duration of schooling for fertility, human capital, productivity, and public pensions. Laxenburg: IIASA Research Report; 2005.
  20. Hondroyiannis G, Papapetrou E. Demographic transition and economic growth: empirical evidence from Greece. J Popul Econ 2002; 15(2):221-42.
  21. The World Bank. The world bank annual report. Washington, DC: World Bank Publication; 2013.
  22. Yahyazadehfar M, Tehranchian AM. Social capital and financial development in Iran. Q J Econ Growth Dev Res 2014; 4(16):73-88. (Persian).
  23. Schwarz G. Estimating the dimension of a model. Ann Statist 1978; 6(2):461-4.
  24. Mahyar HA. Inflation and openness: empirical evidences from Iran (1965-2010). Stud Bus Econ 2014; 9(2):27-32.
  25. Johansen S. Statistical analysis of co-integration vectors. J Econ Dynam Cont 1988; 12(2):231-54.
  26. Gonzalo J. Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships. J Econ 1994; 60(1):203-33.
  27. Maghsudpour MA. Factors affecting fertility decline in Iran from the viewpoint of economics (1986-2011). Econ J 2015; 5(6):83-100. (Persian).
  28. Wang Ping, Yip CK, Scotese CA. Fertility choice and economic growth: theory and evidence. Rev Econ Statist 1994; 76(2):255-66.
مجله زنان، مامایی و نازایی ایران
دوره 19، شماره 14
هفته دوم تیر ماه 1395
تیر 1395
صفحه 20-28

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار