اثر رشد اقتصادی بر نرخ باروری کل در ایران (1392-1363)

نوع مقاله: اصیل پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد MBA، دانشکده مدیریت و فن آوری، دانشگاه علوم و فنون مازندران، بابل، ایران.

2 دانشجوی دکترای روانشناسی، دانشکده علوم تربیتی و روانشناسی، دانشگاه الزهراء، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

مقدمه: باروری از جمله مباحث پیچیده‌ای است که عوامل مختلف اقتصادی، فرهنگی و سیاسی بر آن تأثیرگذار است. از یک سو تصمیمات خانواده برای فرزندپروری به شدت وابسته به شرایط اقتصادی و از سوی دیگر رشد و ورود فرزندان به بازار کار بر اقتصاد تأثیرگذار است. کشوری مانند ایران با سهم زیادی از جمعیت جوان به طور طبیعی نرخ بالاتری از زاد و ولد و نرخ پایین‌تری از مرگ و میر را تجربه می‌کند. بنابراین توجه به باروری و موضوعات مرتبط با آن در ایران از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار است، لذا مطالعه حاضر با هدف بررسی اثر رشد اقتصادی بر نرخ باروری کل در ایران انجام شد.
روش‌کار: داده‌های سری زمانی مربوط به نرخ رشد اقتصادی و نرخ باروری کل در ایران از داده‌های بانک جهانی طی سال‌های 1392-1363 استخراج و سپس الگوی پیشنهادی با استفاده از آزمون هم‌جمعی جوهانسن و الگوی تصحیح خطای برداری برآورد گردید.
یافته‌ها: برآورد الگوی پیشنهادی به کار گرفته شده نشان داد که طی این سال‌ها، 1% افزایش در نرخ رشد اقتصادی در ایران باعث 01/0% کاهش در نرخ باروری کل در یک دوره بعد و 01/0% کاهش در نرخ باروری کل در دو دوره بعد شده است.
نتیجه‌گیری: طی دوره مشاهده، رشد اقتصادی در ایران اثر منفی و معناداری بر نرخ باروری کل داشته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Effect of Economic Growth on Total Fertility Rate in Iran (1984-2013)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mahyar Hami 1
  • Maryam Taghavi Jelodar 2
1 M.Sc in Master of Business Administration, School of Management and Technology, Mazandaran University of Science & Technology, Babol, Iran.
2 Ph.D Student in Psychology, School of Education and Psychology, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Introduction: Fertility is as complex topics which is influenced by various economic, cultural, and political factors. Also, family's decisions for childbearing is highly dependent on economic conditions and on the other hand, children's growth and entering to the market affect economy. A country like Iran with a large share of young population naturally experiences higher rates of fertility and lower rates of mortality. Therefore, it is important to pay attention to fertility and its related issues in Iran. So, this study was performed with aim to evaluate the effect of economic growth on total fertility rate in Iran.
Methods: Time series data related to economic growth and fertility rate in Iran was extracted from World Bank Data during 1984 to 2013. Then we applied Johansen Co-integration Test and Vector Error Correction Model to estimate the proposed model.
Results: Estimation of the proposed model showed that during these years, 1% increase in economic growth rate has led to approximately 0.01% decrease in total fertility rate in the next period and 0.01% decrease in total fertility rate in the next two period.
Conclusion: The economic growth has a negatively significant impact on total fertility rate in Iran during the observation period.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic Growth
  • Iran
  • Total Fertility Rate
  • Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)
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