پیش‌بینی خطر ابتلاء به سرطان پستان با استفاده از مدل‌های گیل و IBIS: مطالعه‌ای در جنوب شرق ایران

نوع مقاله: اصیل پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه پزشکی اجتماعی و خانواده، مرکز تحقیقات عوامل اجتماعی مؤثر بر سلامت، پژوهشکده آینده‌پژوهی در سلامت، دانشگاه علوم پزشکی کرمان، کرمان، ایران.

2 رزیدنت گروه پزشکی خانواده، مرکز تحقیقات مدل‌سازی در سلامت، پژوهشکده آینده‌پژوهی در سلامت، دانشگاه علوم پزشکی کرمان، کرمان، ایران.

3 استادیار گروه پزشکی اجتماعی و خانواده، مرکز تحقیقات علوم اعصاب، پژوهشکده نوروفارماکولوژی، دانشگاه علوم پزشکی کرمان، کرمان، ایران.

10.22038/ijogi.2019.13998

چکیده

مقدمه: سرطان پستان، شایع‌ترین بدخیمی و دومین علت مرگ بدخیمی در زنان در دنیا است. شناسایی زودرس آن می‌تواند باعث درمان به‌موقع و افزایش امید به زندگی بیماران گردد. مدل‌های مختلفی برای تعیین خطر ابتلاء و شناسایی زنان پرخطر طراحی شده است. مطالعه حاضر با هدف بررسی خطر ابتلاء به سرطان پستان در زنان شهر کرمان با استفاده از مدل‌های مختلف انجام شد.
روش‌کار: اینمطالعه مقطعی در سال 1397 بر روی 454 نفر از زنان 75-35 ساله مراجعه‌کننده به مراکز جامع سلامت شهر کرمان انجام شد. جهت بررسی خطر ابتلاء پنج‌ساله و مادام‌العمر ابتلاء به سرطان پستان، سؤالات پرسشنامه مربوط به مدل‌های گیل و IBIS از افراد سؤال شد. تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها با استفاده از نرم‌افزار آماری SPSS (نسخه 20) و آزمون همبستگی پیرسون انجام شد. میزان p کمتر از 05/0 معنی‌دار در نظر گرفته شد.
یافته‌ها: میانگین نمره خطر پنج‌ساله ابتلاء به سرطان پستان بر اساس مدل گیل، 65/0±81/0% و بر اساس مدل IBIS، 58/0±81/0% بود. همچنین میانگین خطر مادام‌العمر بر‌ اساس مدل گیل و IBIS به‌ترتیب 52/5±53/10% و 94/3±28/11% بود. ارتباط خطی مثبت و معنی‌داری بین خطر پنج‌ساله (67/0=r) و مادام‌العمر (51/0=r) مدل‌های گیل و IBIS وجود داشت (001/0>p).
نتیجه‌گیری: در مراکز جامع خدمات سلامت می‌توان از مدل‌های ارزیابی خطر جهت شناسایی افراد پر‌خطر برای ابتلاء به سرطان پستان استفاده کرد. مدل گیل و IBIS پیش‌بینی خطر تقریباً مشابه داشته و نتایج آنها با یکدیگر همخوانی دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Predicting the risk of breast cancer using Gail and International Breast Cancer Intervention Study (IBIS) models: A study in the southeast of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohsen Momeni 1
  • Zahra Hoseini 2
  • Mina Danaei 3
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Community and Family Medicine, Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
2 Resident, Department of Family Medicine, Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Community and Family Medicine, Neuroscience Research Center, Institute of Neuropharmacology, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Introduction: Breast cancer is the most common malignancy and the second leading cause of malignancy in women, worldwide. Early diagnosis can lead to timely treatment and increase the life expectancy of patients. Various models have been designed to determine the risk of disease and identifying high-risk women. This study was performed with aim to evaluate the risk of breast cancer using different models in women of Kerman.
Methods: This cross-sectional study was performed on 454 women aged 35-75 years referred to comprehensive health centers in Kerman in 2018. The questions from the Gail and IBIS questionnaire were asked to assess the risk of developing 5-year and lifetime breast cancer risk. Data were analyzed by SPSS software (version 20) and Pearson correlation test. P<0.05 was considered statistically significant.
Results: Mean of 5-year risk score for breast cancer was 0.81 ± 0.65% based on Gail model and 0.81 ± 0.58% based on IBIS model. Also, mean of lifetime risk based on Gail and IBIS models was 10.53 ± 5.52% and 11.28 ± 3.94%, respectively. There was a significant positive linear relationship between 5-year risk (r = 0.67) and lifetime risk (r = 0.51) on Gail and IBIS models (p<0.001).
Conclusion: In comprehensive health centers, risk assessment models can be used to identify high risk people for breast cancer. The Gail and IBIS models are relatively similar in risk prediction and their results are correlated.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Breast Cancer
  • Prevention
  • Risk Assessment
  • risk management
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